NFL Odds & Tips
Dylan Wilkerson: Although the Falcons lost to the Saints last week, Atlanta played a lot better than their opponent – and the box score shows it.
Marcus Mariota took care of the football, going 20 of 33 for 215 yards without throwing an interception. The Falcons’ offensive line didn’t allow for a sack, and the team as a whole committed just 55 penalty yards.
The Rams are clearly missing Andrew Whitworth in the trenches and Cooper Kupp can only take his roster so far. Give me the Falcons in an important football number.
Also, a great shirt game!
Pieces: I’m betting on Atlanta +10.5 here and would play +10.
I believe the Falcons will be a determined ATS team going into the season. The offense has more pop than some people think, and the defense at least has a strong cornerback group, which gives you a chance in the NFL. Also, in the past, we’ve seen improvements in defense production under Coordinator Dean Pees in his second season.
While I don’t want to overreact to a game when it comes to the Rams, I do have my concerns about the defending Super Bowl champion. The defense can take a small step back while the offense can get into trouble. Allen Robinson seemed stuck in the mud last week, as did Cam Akers.
Maybe Matthew Stafford isn’t 100% healthy either, but my main concern is the offensive line that was absolutely abused against a Bills defense that didn’t blitz once. Now Los Angeles is a bit battered and will be without its starting center, which isn’t ideal against Grady Jarrett.
Simon Jaeger: There’s no doubt the public is tuned into the 49ers after such a horrible Week 1. Trey Lance’s shares have fallen following the defeat his team suffered in terrible conditions in Chicago.
I think we can all agree that it was a throw away game. Neither the Niners nor the Bears looked particularly good in this monsoon.
I still think the 49ers have a top five unit in the NFC on both offense and defense. They now face a Seahawks team that I have ranked as a #31 team in the NFL.
Seattle put their heart and soul into beating the Broncos on Monday Night Football, but we can all agree they weren’t the better team. Denver fumbled twice in the red zone and had their new head coach make a bizarre coaching decision late in the game.
On the one hand I get a team that the public is into, at home against a team that everyone is suddenly higher on. I bet 49ers every time in this position.
Chris Raybon: Jacobs was never one to play a big role in the Raiders’ passing game, averaging 1.5 receptions per game in 2019 and 2.2 in 20, before increasing to 3.6 last season. That surge was likely due to Kenyans Drake and Jalen Richard missing 12 games combined.
New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels isn’t asking his RB1 to play a big part in the passing game. In the past decade, not a single McDaniel RB1 has averaged more than 1.2 receptions per game, and nine out of 10 have averaged under 1.0. The trend continued into Week 1, with Jacobs seeing a target at 35 offensive snaps.
Jacobs averaged 7.1 yards per catch during his career, so he could catch two passes and still hit the Underman on his yardage post.
I bet Jacobs’ Under on receptions and am getting yards at 2.5 and 15.5 at BetMGM.
Derek Farnsworth: The Bengals could have beaten the Steelers by three touchdowns, but luck was not on their side. They committed five turnovers, missed an extra point to win usually, and missed a short field goal to win in overtime. Ja’Marr Chase also missed a spectacular touchdown by two inches.
If anything, I left this game more optimistic about the Bengals. Cincinnati improved their offensive line in the offseason, defense is expected to be above league average, and offensive weapons are among the best in football.
Asking a road team to cover a 7-point spread is a lot, but the Cowboys may already be waving the white flag for their season after Dak Prescott’s injury.
Most books have that spread at -7.5, so jump on the touchdown spread if you can find it.
John LanFranca: The Broncos were the fifth slowest offensive player in 2021. On Monday against Seattle they played even more slowly.
Head coach Nathaniel Hackett is trying to use his offensive line to avoid a repeat of last year when they ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate in first and second place. Denver were 29th in the league at neutral pace a week ago and there’s no reason to expect a change in a game where they’re double-digit favourites.
The Texans defense has shown signs of life, finishing 14th in the DVOA in Week 1 after finishing 23rd in 2021. The addition of perennially underrated pass rusher Jerry Hughes has already made a difference.
When Hackett was the Packers’ offensive coordinator, his offense failed to erase that team total at a 55% rate in 2021, even though Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback. The Broncos don’t need to pick up the pace against the Texans, so they need to be incredibly efficient with their slow offense to score over 28 points.
Downplay the Broncos team to 28 overall under 28.5.
Derek Farnsworth: The Broncos were unlucky in their season opener against the Seahawks. They lost two fumbles at the goal line and then put together one of the worst potential game-winning drives I’ve seen in quite some time. Nathaniel Hackett is known for his play calling, but I’m not sure what he was thinking when he settled for a long field goal attempt on that final drive.
Regardless, Russell Wilson is a huge upgrade for passing attack, the running backs should have success on the ground all season and this defense could end up being one of the best units in football.
Denver can’t afford to start their season 0-2 given the strength of their division. The Texans deserve credit for tying in Week 1, but now they head to Denver and face a team very hungry for their first win. I see this game turning into a loss and there is currently a 9.5 point spread to win.